Donald Martin & Co. Reports Drop in U.S. Travel to Europe
According to the monthly report by Donald N. Martin & Co., analysts on American travel to Europe, the stronger dollar and lower fuel prices should help limit the decline in travel. Overall trans-Atlantic traffic continued to drop in January, with leading carriers reporting an average decline of 4.2 percent compared to January 2008.
Capacity was down an average 1.2 percent, putting the average load factor at 72.8. U.S. travel to Europe was down 10.7 percent in November, according to the latest figures from the Department of Commerce, for the second month of double-digit decline.
According to the Martin report, “We continue to estimate that, for all of 2008, U.S. traffic to Europe totaled about 7 percent less than in 2007. Some individual countries are reporting steeper declines, including Britain (down 16 percent), which barely retained its title as the No. 1 overseas destination for Americans. Looking ahead, we project continued declines of 10 percent or more through the winter and into the spring.”
The dollar has hovered between 0.77 and 0.78 euros for several weeks, well over its late December dip to 0.69 euros. The dollar also stepped up to £0.70, or more than 35 percent over its summer low versus the pound. France virtually tied Britain as the No. 1 destination for U.S. travelers in 2008. Britain has been the leader, by a wide margin, for most of the past 60 years.
France gained by losing slightly less. Britain reported a 16 percent drop to 2.98 million U.S. visits in 2008, according to a preliminary figure from the Office of National Statistics. Maison de la France is estimating its total at 2.95 million U.S. visits, which would be a 14 percent decline.
Of the remaining top four destinations, Germany reported that U.S. visits were down only 4.3 percent through November. Italy has not yet reported a U.S. traffic estimate for 2008. Overall, Britain is down only 2 percent from all overseas markets, thanks to much better performances in other regions. In the U.S. market, the dollar’s weakness versus the pound (since reversed) was a major obstacle through the summer.
Worldwide, international travel will decline as much as 2 percent this year, the UN World Tourism Organization said. That would follow a 2 percent increase in 2008 to 924 million, and an average annual increase of 7 percent for the 2004-2007 period. Europe and the Americas will suffer the sharpest declines, the UNWTO said, as the worldwide recession has hit these regions hardest so far.
Europe accounted for 52.9 percent of world arrivals in 2008 (compared to 57.5 percent in 2000). But this share is skewed upward because Europe has so many nations in close proximity. The UNTWO counts each foreign arrival in each nation.
