The Bad News for Caribbean Cruisers: Hurricane Season Could Be Pretty Active

Planning a Caribbean cruise for late summer or fall? Here’s the bad news: A worse-than-normal hurricane season is on the way.

That’s the word from Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast team, which is predicting an above-average year of tropical storms for the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast for 2010, released today, calls for 15 named tropical storms in the Atlantic, of which eight will become hurricanes. The team predicts four of the eight hurricanes will in turn develop into major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

As USA TODAY weather writer Doyle Rice notes today in a blog post on the predictions, a typical Atlantic hurricane season sees just 10 named storms — six of them hurricanes. The typical year sees just two major hurricanes.

Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project is the nation’s longest-running and most well-known hurricane forecast effort. Begun by William Gray in 1984, the forecasts are used by insurance companies, emergency managers and the media to prepare Americans for hurricane season.

Last month, private forecasting firm AccuWeather also predicted a higher-than-average 16 to 18 tropical storms and hurricanes would form in the Atlantic basin this year. The federal National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its hurricane forecast on May 20.

A USA TODAY analysis of Colorado State’s forecast data since 2000 found the university has under-forecast the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes four times, over-forecast the number three times, and been almost right (within two storms) on three occasions.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The first named storm will be Alex, followed by Bonnie and Colin.